A little secret of the economics trade is that the jobs data is the statistical equivalent of a best guess.

There is a lot of misunderstanding around the mechanics of the jobs report, it can take on a life of its own.

Less-than-perfect figures are inevitable when attempting to make a monthly estimate of hiring and firing among a population of millions of people.


And if you pay attention only to the initial hiring estimate that most mainstream media outlets blast out every month, you are operating with a skewed impression of what’s really going on in the economy.

The GOP tax plan included no guarantees for workers 

Once Mid-term elections are concluded, every poor vote surfaces. 

If a company decides to lay off thousands of employees, “tax reform” allows them to do so or Renege on promises that simply pocketed the money and boosted their stock price. 

They could also just offshore the jobs to Asia.

The BLS itself has long tried to make sure that the public understands the limits of its methodology.

The CES program often discourages users from placing too much emphasis on data from any single month and encourages them instead to analyze data series over a longer term.”

Traders who buy and sell assets in the seconds after the latest figures are released and the politicians who make partisan statements in the immediate aftermath are basing those decisions on incomplete information.